by German Lopez
History suggests fundraising is not necessarily an indicator of strength
Ex-Councilman John Cranley is outraising Vice Mayor
Roxanne Qualls in the 2013 mayoral race by roughly $124,000. Some are
calling the fundraising lead an important indicator of strength, but the history and research of money in politics show the lead might
not matter much, if at all.
The numbers came in yesterday as political candidates from
around the state filed their finance reports. So far, Cranley has
raised about $472,000, compared to Qualls’ $348,000. Of that money,
Cranley has about $264,000 still in hand, and Qualls has nearly
The disparity is unsurprising to the campaigns. The
Cranley campaign has always said it needs $1 million to win. Qualls,
who’s been polled as the slight favorite, has a tamer goal of $750,000.
The City Council races are similarly sprawled with cash.
Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld is leading the pack with nearly $279,000,
while newcomer Greg Landsman topped challengers and even
some council members with a total raised of $165,000.
Given all the cash pouring into the campaigns, many people
assume it plays a pivotal role. But a look at the history and research
shows fundraising might not matter all that much.
Money clearly didn’t matter in the 2005 mayoral race.
During that campaign, former State Sen. Mark Mallory spent nearly
$380,000. Ex-Councilman David Pepper spent $1.2 million — more than
three times his opponent. Mallory still won the vote 52-48 percent.
In contrast, money might have boosted Sittenfeld to second
place in the 2011 Council races, putting the relatively new challenger
only behind the widely known Qualls. Sittenfeld raised $306,000 for that
campaign, the most out of anyone in the race.
Still, most political science points to money having a
marginal, if any, electoral impact. Jennifer Victor, a political science professor
at George Mason University, explains the research in her blog: “Campaigning may help voters focus their attention (see this), be persuasive in some cases (see this), and help deliver successful message (see this).
Frequently, macro-economic trends are the best predictors of
presidential elections. History tells us that all that money spent by
outsiders may not affect the outcome of the election — because campaigns
(generally) don’t matter (see political science research here, here, and here, for example).”
Instead, political scientists cite other factors as
much more important indicators: economic growth, the direction of the city, state
and country, incumbency or successorship, name likability and
recognition, and political affiliation.The mayoral primary election is Sept. 10, followed by the final election on Nov. 5. The next finance reports are due Oct. 24.[Correction: This story originally said $134,000 when the correct number is $124,000.]
by German Lopez
Human services funding falls short, state to kill murderer, longshot mayoral candidates rage
Although this year’s cuts are being undone, City Hall has been cutting resources
to the homeless, long-term unemployed, crime victims and casualties of
domestic abuse since 2004. Aid to those groups is part of human services
funding, which is supposed to receive 1.5 percent of the operating
budget but currently gets a quarter of that at 0.4 percent. To explain
the decade of cuts, the city administration typically points to citizen
surveys and meetings conducted as part of the priority-driven budgeting
process. But a CityBeat analysis of the demographics of the process found they were skewed in favor of the wealthiest
Cincinnatians and against low-income people, who benefit the most from
human services. For the agencies that receive funding, the history of cuts is even
more worrying as Cincinnati prepares for more budget gaps in the next
The state of Ohio will execute Billy Slagle on Aug. 7,
even though the prosecutor’s office behind the charges asked the Ohio
Parole Board to grant him clemency. The parole board denied the request,
and Gov. John Kasich last week declined to commute the sentence to life
in prison. Slagle was convicted in 1988 of murdering a 40-year-old
woman in a gruesome stabbing. His family says he was in an alcohol- and
drug-fueled haze at the time and has a history of problems at home, including
domestic abuse, that presents extenuating circumstances.
Two longshot mayoral candidates are really upset
about Cincinnati’s primary system: Independent Sandra “Queen” Noble
sent an F-bomb-laden email to debate organizers, and Libertarian Jim
Berns quit the race. Under the current primary system, multiple mayoral
candidates are allowed to run. But come Sept. 10, voters will select the
top two contenders in a primary. Those frontrunners will then face off
in a final election on Nov. 5 to pick who will take over City Hall on
Dec. 1. Noble and Berns claim the current system favors the two
frontrunners — Democrats Roxanne Qualls and John Cranley — by helping
them get the most exposure through televised debates after the primary
Commentaries:• “GOP Continues Playing Politics with Ohioans’ Health”• “Is Ohio’s New License Plate the Worst or Just Bad?”
Cranley has raised more money
than Qualls in the mayoral race, according to campaign finance reports
filed yesterday. Cranley has raised about $472,000, compared to $348,000
for Qualls. Cranley also has about $264,000 in the bank, while the
Qualls campaign has about $192,000 in hand.
Undocumented immigrants who were brought into the country as children will be eligible for in-state tuition
at Ohio public colleges, following a decision from the Ohio Board of
Regents. The change will save the students thousands of dollars at the
state’s public schools, which were charging exorbitant out-of-state and
international rates before. The undocumented immigrants qualify for
legal benefits because of an executive order signed by President Barack Obama earlier in the year
that prevents the federal government from prosecuting them. The order
falls short of actual legalization on the books, but it grants many benefits under state and federal law.
In quite possibly the worst news ever, Rob Lowe and Rashida Jones announced they’re leaving “Parks and Recreation” after the 13th episode of the upcoming season.
German scientists have proposed a new strategy for combating climate change: turn coastal deserts into forests.
By science, ostriches can now fly:
by German Lopez
Debates to take place after Sept. 10 primary; Berns withdrawing in protest
Independent mayoral candidate Sandra “Queen” Noble sent an F-bomb-laden email to mayoral debate organizers and Libertarian Jim Berns quit the race in protest of news that two mayoral debates hosted by The Cincinnati Enquirer and WCPO will take place after the primary election.Under the current primary system, multiple mayoral
candidates are allowed to run. But come Sept. 10, voters will select the
top two contenders in a primary. Those frontrunners will then face off in a final
election on Nov. 5 to pick who will take over City Hall on Dec. 1.Noble, who’s known for being eccentric and running for public office multiple times but never being elected, began the chain of events with an explicit email.
“Fuck you man. The two motherfuckers burn,” Noble wrote in
a July 30 email to mayoral debate organizers. “Queen Noble is being
robbed of the elections thanks to motherfucker such as yourself seeing
the future and shit. The fuck you mean debate after the election robbing
primary. It's a rip off for the incumbents in it self (sic). Dirty
motherfuckers are backed by dirty motherfuckers cheating the public out
the best candidates so fuck you and the primary election. Queen Noble
will debate now asshole.”
Berns replied in his own July 30 email, “Queen Noble is
right. The September 10th Top Two Primary's only purpose is to cheat the
public out of the best candidates for Mayor of Cincinnati.”Today, Berns announced he’s withdrawing from the race in protest of the primary.
The criticism isn’t new to local politics. Berns has been
vocally critical of the primary process ever since the mayoral
campaigns, media outlets and other interested parties began meeting early in the year to
set up the debates.
Supporters of the primary system say it helps narrow down
the field so voters can better evaluate and scrutinize the frontrunners.
Some also claim it positively extends the electoral process, so voters
are forced to think about their choice for mayor from the primary in
September to the election in November.
Berns argues the primary system favors establishment
candidates, especially when media outlets fail to cover campaign events
and debates prior to the primary vote. He also says the $350,000 to
$400,000 it costs the city to hold the primary is a waste of money, and
voters should instead choose from a full pool of candidates in November.
The criticisms are further accentuated by how media outlets cover the election, which affects how the public and organizations that endorse candidates learn about them. It’s rare a media outlet or local organization wants to
host a debate, especially a televised debate, before the primary, and
it’s even rarer the debate involves more than the two expected
But that gives the most publicity to those who lead the
race from the start. Not only do the top two contenders get to
participate in a televised debate, but media outlets also tend to give
much more coverage to the candidates they know are going to
appear on television.
This year, the expected contenders are Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls and ex-Councilman John Cranley,
two Democrats. Both have said they support the primary system, although
Cranley has stated he supports moving the date so it coincides with
countywide or statewide elections earlier in the year.
Cincinnati has directly elected its mayors since 2001.
Since then, the primary system has been necessary twice. The other
mayoral elections involved only two candidates.
Until 2001, the mayor was the City Council candidate who got the most votes.
0 Comments · Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ed
FitzGerald is urging a coalition effort to begin a long, complicated
petitioning process that could repeal some of the anti-abortion measures
in the two-year state budget.
by German Lopez
Seelbach calls for Voting Rights Act rework, 3CDC upkeep criticized, politics in budget veto
Councilman Chris Seelbach and other local leaders are
calling on Congress to rework the Voting Rights Act following a U.S.
Supreme Court decision that struck down key provisions. Supporters of
the Voting Rights Act argue it’s necessary to prevent discrimination and
protect people’s right to vote, while critics call it an outdated
measure from the Jim Crow era that unfairly targeted some states with
forgone histories of racism. “Within 24 hours of the Supreme Court’s
decision to gut the Voting Rights Act, five states are already moving
ahead with voter ID laws, some of which had previously been rejected by
the Department of Justice as discriminatory,” Seelbach said in a
statement. “The right to vote is one of the most sacred values in our
nation and Congress should act immediately to protect it”.
Nonprofit developer 3CDC says it’s restructuring staff and guidelines to take better care of its vacant buildings
following criticisms from residents and the local Board of Housing
Appeals. The board has fined the 3CDC three times this year for failing
to maintain Cincinnati’s minimum standards for vacant buildings, which
require owners keep the buildings watertight and safe for emergency
personnel to enter.
Gov. John Kasich said the funding allocation belonged in
the capital budget — not the operating budget he signed into law — when
he vetoed money going to State Treasurer Josh Mandel’s office, but The Columbus Dispatch reports it might have been revenge
for Mandel’s opposition to the Medicaid expansion and an oil-and-gas
severance tax. Kasich spokesperson Rob Nichols says the allegation is
“silly” and “absurd,” adding that Kasich said he would work with Mandel
on allocating the money during the capital budget process. The state
treasurer’s office says it needs the $10 million to upgrade computers
against cyberattacks. Mandel was one of the first state Republicans to
come out against the Medicaid expansion, which CityBeat covered here and here.
A series of mandatory across-the-board federal spending
cuts was supposed to take $66 million from Ohio schools, but state
officials say they’ll be able to soften the blow with $19 million in unspent federal aid.
The federal cuts — also known as “sequestration” — were part of a debt
deal package approved by Congress and President Barack Obama that kicked
in March 1. Prior to its implementation, Obama asked Congress to rework
sequestration to lessen its negative fiscal impact, but Republican
legislators refused. CityBeat covered some of sequestration’s other statewide effects here.
The mayoral race officially dropped down to four candidates yesterday, with self-identified Republican Stacy Smith failing to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot.
Check out the Cincinnati Zoo’s latest expansion here.
Headline from The Cincinnati Enquirer: “Where does John Cranley live?”
It’s now legal to go 70 miles per hour in some state highways.
Cincinnati-based Kroger and Macy’s came in at No. 2 and No. 14 respectively in an annual list of the nation’s top 20 retailers from STORIES magazine.
The Tribune Co. is buying Local TV LLC in Newport for $2.7 billion to become the largest TV station operator in the nation.
Human head transplants may be closer than we think (and perhaps hope).
by German Lopez
State tax plan favors wealthy, state budget limits abortion, mayoral primary incoming
The Republican-controlled Ohio General Assembly yesterday
passed its state budget for the next two years, and Gov. John Kasich is
expected to sign the bill this weekend. Part of the budget is a tax plan
that would cut income taxes but raise sales and property taxes in a way
that Policy Matters Ohio, a left-leaning public policy think tank, says
would ultimately favor the state’s wealthiest.
On average, individuals in the top 1 percent would see their taxes fall by $6,083, or
0.7 percent, under the plan, while those in the bottom 20 percent would pay about
$12, or 0.1 percent, more in taxes, according to Policy Matters’
The state budget also includes several anti-abortion measures: less funding for Planned Parenthood, more funding for
anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers, regulations that could be used
by the state health director to shut down abortion clinics and a
requirement for doctors to do an external ultrasound on a woman seeking
an abortion and inform her whether a heartbeat is detected. Republicans claim they’re protecting the sanctity of
human life, while abortion rights advocates are labeling the measures
an attack on women’s rights.
Cincinnati will have a mayoral primary on Sept. 10.
Five candidates vying for the highest elected position in the city:
Democrats Roxanne Qualls and John Cranley, Libertarian Jim Berns,
self-identified Republican Stacy Smith and Sandra Queen Noble. Qualls
and Cranley are widely seen as the favorites, with each candidate
splitting on issues like the parking lease and streetcar. Qualls supports the policies, while Cranley opposes both. A recent poll from the Cranley campaign found the race deadlocked, with Cranley and Qualls both getting 40 percent of the vote and the rest of polled voters claiming they’re undecided.
Former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords will appear at the Northside Fourth of July parade. Giffords will be in Cincinnati as part of a nationwide tour on gun violence.
Elmwood Place’s speed cameras are being confiscated by the Hamilton County Sheriff Department. Judge Robert Ruehlman originally told
operating company Optotraffic to turn the cameras off, but when the company
didn’t listen, the judge ruled the cameras should be confiscated.
The Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments released its new bike map for southwest Ohio.
President Barack Obama signaled on Thursday that the federal government will extend marriage benefits to gay and lesbian couples in all states,
even those states that don’t allow same-sex marriage. That may mean a
gay couple in Ohio could get married in New York and Massachusetts and
still have their marriage counted at the federal level, but state
limitations would still remain. The administration’s plans follow a U.S.
Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday that struck down a federal ban on
The U.S. Senate on Thursday approved a bill to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws.
Ohio’s two senators were split on the bill: Democratic Sen. Sherrod
Brown voted for it, while Republican Sen. Rob Portman voted against it. A
Congressional Budget Office report previously found the bill would reduce the nation’s deficit and boost the economy over the next decade.
Scientists cloned a mouse with a mere blood sample.
CityBeat won a bunch of awards at Wednesday’s
Society of Professional Journalists Cincinnati chapter awards banquet
and hall of fame induction ceremony. Read about them here.
by German Lopez
Streetcar moves forward, sewer compromise hits impasse, Kasich's approval at all-time high
The streetcar project is moving forward
following yesterday’s votes from City Council’s Budget and Finance
Committee, which approved increased capital funding and accountability
measures that will keep the public updated on the project’s progress.
The increased funding fixes the project’s $17.4 million budget gap by
issuing more debt and pulling funding from various capital projects,
including infrastructure improvements around the Horseshoe Casino. The
accountability measures will require the city administration to report
to City Council on the streetcar's progress with a timeline of key
milestones, performance measures, an operating plan, staffing
assessments and monthly progress reports.
At the same committee meeting, council members failed to carry out a repeal of “local hire” and “local preference” laws,
which was part of an earlier announced compromise
between the city and county that would allow work on sewer projects to
continue. At this point, it’s unclear whether the Hamilton County Board of
Commissioners will repeal the funding hold on sewer projects. The
commissioners passed the hold after City Council modified its
“responsible bidder” law in May. The city says the laws encourage local
job creation and training, but the county claims the rules favor unions
and impose extra costs on Metropolitan Sewer District projects.
Republican Gov. John Kasich’s approval ratings hit an all-time high of 54 percent
in a new Quinnipiac University poll, helping him hold a 14-point lead
against likely Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald. “All in all, at this
stage, Kasich has done a pretty good job appealing to voters across the
state,” said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. “FitzGerald remains pretty much
an unknown to most Ohioans, with only one in four voters knowing enough
about him to have formed an opinion. The election is a long way away,
but the next stage will be the race to define FitzGerald, positively by
the candidate himself and negatively by the Kasich folks.”
The Cincinnati office for the Internal Revenue Service also targeted liberal groups,
particularly those who used the terms “progressive” and “occupy.” The
IRS has been under scrutiny in the past few months for targeting
conservative groups by honing in on terms such as “tea party” and
Ohio gave tax incentives
to four more Cincinnati-area businesses. Overall, 15 projects received
the breaks to supposedly spur $379 million in investment across Ohio.
Miami University banned smoking in cars on campus and raised tuition.
Headline: “Columbus man rips off his penis while high on drugs.”
Here is a history of red panda escapes.
A study found people find others more attractive after getting a shock to the brain.
by German Lopez
Posted In: News
, City Council
at 12:49 PM | Permalink
Council member could permanently resign if he wins re-election
Council member Chris Smitherman announced in a statement today that he will leave his post as president of the Cincinnati chapter of the NAACP while he runs for re-election to City Council.If he does win re-election, Smitherman will offer his permanent resignation to the local chapter's executive committee, which can then accept or reject Smitherman's leave.James Clingman, a vice president of the NAACP and founder of the Greater Cincinnati African-American Chamber of Commerce, will take Smitherman's spot for now.Smitherman, City Council's sole Independent, has come under criticism recently to step down from his NAACP post as he runs for office. Others have also criticized Smitherman's involvement with political organizations like the conservative Coalition Opposed to Additional Spending and Taxes (COAST) and his support for Republican City Council candidates — involvement and support that critics argue are too political for the NAACP.A memo titled "Election Year Dos and Don'ts" from the NAACP tells members to avoid partisan, political activity."Although NAACP units are 501(c)(4) tax-exempt organizations, the national NAACP is a 501(c)(3) organization which is restricted in how it can assist people in registering or getting out to vote. In addition, NAACP policy specifically prohibits units’ engagement in political campaign activity. This means that NAACP units cannot endorse or oppose candidates running for public office, make financial or in-kind contributions to candidates, political parties, or PACs, or engage in other activity that is designed or targeted to influence the outcome of any candidate election," the memo reads.By separating himself from the NAACP, Smitherman can continue his political activities without violating federal and national NAACP rules.
1 Comment · Wednesday, June 12, 2013
As county and state officials move to
investigate and potentially prosecute voter fraud cases, local groups
are pushing back, warning that the investigations could cause a chilling
effect among voters.
by German Lopez
Downtown grocery advances, city pension in trouble, county to investigate “double voters”
Got questions for CityBeat about, well, anything? Submit them here, and we’ll try to get back to you in our first Answers Issue.City Council’s Budget and Finance Committee approved a development plan for Fourth and Race streets to build a downtown grocery store, a luxury apartment tower and a garage that will replace Pogue’s Garage. The project will cost $80 million, with the city paying
$12 million through a five-year forgivable loan and private financing paying for the remaining $68 million. The city’s loan is being financed through urban renewal
funds, which are generated through downtown taxes and can only be used
for capital investment projects downtown. The project was originally attached to the city’s plan to semi-privatize its parking assets, but the city administration says the urban renewal funds opened up after a hotel-convention center deal collapsed.
The city’s pension fund saw a return of 12 percent in
fiscal year 2012, but the amount of money the city owes and should
contribute to the pension fund continues to go up.
The higher costs will likely force City Council to put more money
toward the pension, which means less money for other services. City Council has underfunded the pension system by varying
degrees since 2003 — a problem that was further exacerbated by the
economic downturn of 2008, which cost the city’s pension fund $102
million. Consultants suggested City Council view the pension fund
as “not being of good health” and make changes that would help make the
pension fund more “robust” and less volatile.As county and state officials move to investigate and potentially prosecute 39 “double voter” cases, local groups are pushing back with warnings that the investigations could cause a chilling effect among voters. Most of the cases cover voters who mailed in an absentee
ballot then showed up to vote on Election Day. Although the voters voted
twice, their votes were only counted once. Critics of the investigations, including Hamilton County Democrats, cite Ohio Revised Code Section 3509.09(B)(2),
which says voters who show up to vote on Election Day after filing an
absentee ballot should be given a provisional ballot. Hamilton County
Republicans say they’re not prejudging anyone and just want an
Following a report that found Ohio’s juvenile correction facilities are among the worst in the nation for rape and other sexual assaults against incarcerated youths, the state is assigning assessors to the facilities to ensure proper protections and improvements are being put in place.The Greater Cincinnati Port Authority is looking to expand its coverage to better market the region. The Port Authority’s plans call for enlisting 18 counties across Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.
A derailed train hit a local electrical tower yesterday, temporarily shutting down power for part of the region.
Fatal collisions between cars and trains at public railroad crossings increased in 2012 to the highest level since 2008.
The former Terrace Plaza Hotel was sold, but it’s not clear what will come next for the building.An experimental form of male birth control involves injecting gold into testes and zapping them with infrared light.
Another one of Saturn’s moons may contain an underground ocean.