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by German Lopez 09.30.2013
Posted In: Health care, News, Mayor at 12:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
mark mallory

Mayor Touts Obamacare Outreach Efforts

Marketplace enrollment will remain open from October through March

Mayor Mark Mallory and other community officials today jumpstarted a six-month effort to enroll uninsured Cincinnatians into the Affordable Care Act’s (“Obamacare”) online marketplaces, which open for enrollment on Oct. 1.

“This is not politics,” Mallory said. “Obamacare is now the law of the land.”

The goal is to reach out to the 21 percent of Hamilton County residents who currently lack health insurance and hopefully help enroll them through the marketplaces, which will allow anyone to go online and browse and compare different health insurance plans.

Forty-six plans will open for enrollment in Cincinnati on Oct. 1, but coverage won’t begin until 2014. The three-month period is supposed to give consumers enough time to decide on a plan before insurance kicks in.

“A new day is starting tomorrow for millions of Americans who have been shut out of the health insurance market,” said Kathleen Faulk, a director at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services who will oversee the Cincinnati area’s marketplace.

At the marketplaces, an Ohio 27-year-old making $25,000 a year will be able to buy a “silver,” or middle-of-the-pack, plan for as low as $145 a month after tax credits, while a family of four making $50,000 a year will be able to pay $282 a month for a similar plan, according to Congressional Budget Office numbers. Other options will range from catastrophic plans, which will cover the barest minimums for a low price, to “platinum” plans, which will provide the most expansive coverage at the highest price.

Participants with an annual income between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level, or individuals making between $11,490 and $45,960, will be eligible for tax subsidies, with the highest incomes getting the smallest subsidies and the lowest incomes getting the largest.

Throughout the enrollment period, outreach campaigns will attempt to enroll as many Americans as possible. Some of those efforts have been made more difficult through new regulations passed by legislators who oppose Obamacare, including Ohio Republicans.

The federal government estimates it will have to sign up 2.7 million young adults out of the 7 million Americans who are expected to enroll. Otherwise, older Americans, who are more prone to sickness and poor health, will flood the marketplaces, exhaust health services and drive up costs.

Enrollment will remain open from October through March. Afterward, enrollment will open annually from Oct. 15 to Dec. 7, just like Medicare. There will be exemptions for those who have life-changing events, such as losing a job or turning 26, to allow people to sign up for coverage during unexpected circumstances.

Starting in 2014, most Americans — with exemptions for religious and economic reasons, the imprisoned and those living outside the country — will have to enroll for health insurance or pay a tax penalty. The penalty will start at $95 per uninsured adult in a household or 1 percent of household income, whichever is higher, and grow in 2016 to $695 per uninsured adult in a household or 2.5 percent of household income, whichever is higher.

Anyone interested in the marketplaces will be able to browse options and sign up online at www.healthcare.gov or www.mayormallory.com, by phone at 1-800-318-2596 or in person at various locations, including community health centers and the Freestore Foodbank.

Update: Clarified metal-based classifications for different health care plans.

 
 
by German Lopez 09.19.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor at 12:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
roxanne qualls

Qualls Unveils Platforms in Plan to Grow Cincinnati

Mayoral candidate promises busy first 100 days

Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls on Thursday unveiled “The Qualls Plan to Grow Cincinnati,” an outline of her platforms and what she would do during her first 100 days as mayor if she’s selected by voters on Nov. 5.

The plan proposes three major changes that Qualls would pursue within 100 days of taking office: She would reinstitute the Shared Services Commission to see which city services can be managed in conjunction with Hamilton County or other political jurisdictions; she would propose a job tax credit for businesses that create jobs that pay a living wage and provide benefits; and she would “renew business districts” by making unused city property available at a “nominal fee” to local startups and small businesses.

Qualls also outlines seven other proposals for the first 100 days, including a review of city services to find efficiencies and cost savings and a “Mayor’s Night In” event that would be held monthly to directly hear residents’ concerns.

The rest of the plan promises more city-provided opportunities for businesses, expanded transportation options, investments in public safety and neighborhoods, employment and apprenticeship programs for struggling youth, new education programs and government reforms. It also includes plans to combat human trafficking, increase the city’s use of renewable energy sources and make Cincinnati more inclusive for women, minorities, the LGBT community and immigrants.

Many of the changes would be made through partnerships and regulatory changes, which means they could come at no cost.

But some of the proposals would involve tax breaks, new city agencies and more spending directed at certain projects. The extra costs could be tricky for a city that has been mired in budget problems for years, especially since Qualls has proposed structurally balancing Cincinnati’s operating budget for the first time since 2000.

Still, Qualls’ proposals are made with the understanding that economic growth can expand the city’s tax base and increase revenues. Cincinnati’s shrinking population since the 1960s is often cited by city officials as a cause for the city’s budget problems.

Qualls is running for mayor against ex-Councilman John Cranley. The biggest issues dividing the two Democratic candidates are the streetcar project and parking plan, both of which Qualls supports and Cranley opposes. The two issues took up most of the discussion during the first post-primary mayoral debate.

Read Qualls full plan here:


 
 
by German Lopez 09.17.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor at 01:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
 
 
city hall

Qualls, Cranley Face Off in First Post-Primary Mayoral Debate

Candidates agree on much, disagree on streetcar and parking lease

Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls and ex-Councilman John Cranley today channeled much of their disagreement on the streetcar project and parking lease when they met for the first post-primary mayoral debate.

For both the candidates, the issues are about where they want to see the city going. Cranley says the city government lacks transparency and openness as it prioritizes controversial ideas to support downtown over Cincinnati’s neighborhoods. Qualls says the investments are continuing Cincinnati’s nationally recognized momentum and bringing growth to both downtown and the neighborhoods.

Whether the subject was the Metro bus system or bringing more flights to Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, Cranley repeatedly referenced his opposition to the streetcar project and his belief that it is siphoning city funds away from more important projects and forcing the city to raise property taxes to pay for debt.

“Money doesn’t grow on trees,” Cranley said. “We have to re-prioritize.”

Qualls argued the streetcar project will produce economic growth and grow the city’s tax base, which the city could then leverage for more development projects. That claim has been backed by studies from consulting firm HDR and the University of Cincinnati, which put the streetcar’s return on investment at three-to-one.

Cranley argued Hop On Cincinnati, a trackless trolley system, is a better option. He said the project would cost considerably less and come with more flexibility since it wouldn’t run on set tracks.

But in a 2007 letter citing swathes of data from cities around the nation, Charlie Hales, now mayor of Portland, Ore., found trackless trolleys consistently underperformed rail projects in terms of economic development and ridership.

At this point, cancelling the streetcar project would also carry its own costs. As of May, city officials estimated they had already spent $20 million on the project and cancelling it would cost another $45 million in federal funding and $14 million in close-out costs.

But expanding the streetcar project into a second phase, as Qualls advocated, would also carry its own set of unknown costs.

On other issues, Qualls touted the city’s plans to lease its parking assets to the Greater Cincinnati Port Authority as a potential avenue for economic development.

Qualls and the current city administration originally supported leveraging the city’s parking meters, lots and garages through the lease to pay for budget gaps and economic development projects. But as the city managed to balance its budget without the lease, the focus has moved toward using the lump-sum and annual payments from the lease to only pay for more development projects.

Cranley claimed, as he long has, that the deal will have a negative impact on a generation by shifting control of the city’s parking assets from the local government to the unelected Port Authority and private companies. He also criticized Qualls and the city administration for withholding a memo that criticized the lease’s financial details and hastily pursuing the lease with limited public input.

Cranley also implied that the deal will actually lower long-term revenues by capping the city’s parking revenues at $3 million a year.

“It’s almost hard to respond to such misinformation, quite frankly,” Qualls responded.

On top of an estimated $92 million lump sum, the city projects that annual payments will start at $3 million a year but eventually grow much larger. Qualls claimed the yearly installments would reach $20 million by the end of the 30-year lease.

Qualls also took issue with Cranley’s assertion that the Port Authority is withholding contract documents for the private companies it will hire to operate Cincinnati’s parking assets. She reminded Cranley that Port board members explicitly told him at a public meeting that those documents will be made public two weeks before they’re signed.

The candidates also sparred on a number of issues typical of political campaigns: government transparency, negative campaign ads and rhetoric vs. facts.

But the debate also highlighted the large amount of agreement between Qualls and Cranley. Both agree the city shouldn’t increase the earnings tax. Both claim Cincinnati needs to structurally balance its budget and stop using one-time sources for budget fixes. Both echoed the need to leverage federal support for the Brent Spence Bridge project. Both criticized the state for refusing to grant tax credits to Pure Romance, a local company that is now considering moving to Covington, Ky., because of the state’s refusal.

Cranley and Qualls got the most votes in the Sept. 10 mayoral primary, allowing both to advance to the general election. Cranley received 55.9 percent of the vote, while Qualls obtained 37.2 percent. Their opponents each failed to break 5 percent.

Voter turnout for the mayoral primary was only 5.68 percent. That was lower than the 15-percent turnout for the mayoral primary held on Sept. 11, 2001, the day of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, and the 21-percent turnout for the 2005 mayoral primary.

In the past two mayoral races with primaries, the primary winner went on to lose the general election.

Voters will get to decide between Qualls and Cranley, along with City Council candidates and other ballot issues, on Nov. 5.

 
 
by German Lopez 09.11.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor at 03:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
city hall

Charter Committee Endorses Mayoral Election Reform

Group cites low voter turnout, calls current system “absurd”

Following the Sept. 10 mayoral primary’s historically low voter turnout, the Charter Committee, Cincinnati’s unofficial third political party, is supporting efforts to reform how the city elects its mayors.

“It is absurd that taxpayers paid $400,000 for a primary yesterday that few people voted in, and that decided very little,” said Mike Goldman, convener of the Charter Committee, in a statement.

Voter turnout for the Sept. 10 mayoral primary was a dismal 5.68 percent. In comparison, turnout was at 15 percent for the primary held on Sept. 11, 2001 — the day of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon — and 21 percent for the 2005 primary.

The primary’s results also went exactly as most election watchers expected: Ex-Councilman John Cranley and Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls overwhelmingly won, allowing them to move on to a direct face-off in the general election.

Prior to the Charter Committees announcement, WVXU reported on a proposal from City Council candidate David Mann, who was endorsed by the Charter Committee and Democratic Party, that would place all eligible mayoral candidates on the ballot in the general election and give the job to whoever gets more than 50 percent of the vote. If no one received majority support, a runoff would ensue between the top two finishers two weeks later.

But the Charter Committee is unsure if Mann’s proposal would work. Charter Committee spokesperson Sean Comer says it would have to study the issue and make a final proposal after hearing opinions from a much larger group of experts. Until then, the Charter Committee isn’t giving specifics.

Under the current system, voters select from all eligible mayoral candidates during a September primary. The two winners then move on to the November ballot for a one-on-one election.

Comer says the Charter Committee is working on broad reforms for Cincinnati’s charter, and the mayoral primary system will be part of the final suggestions.

 
 
by German Lopez 09.11.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor, Health care at 09:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
roxanne qualls

Morning News and Stuff

Cranley and Qualls win mayoral primary, state limits Obamacare, zoo levy renewal on ballot

Ex-Councilman John Cranley decisively defeated Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls as both Democratic mayoral candidates won the primary election and advanced to the general election. With all precincts reporting, Cranley got 55.9 percent of the vote and Qualls picked up 37.2 percent, according to unofficial results from the Hamilton County Board of Elections. But voter turnout for yesterday’s primary was especially low at 5.68 percent; in comparison, turnout was 15 percent during the primary held on Sept. 11, 2001 — the day of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon — and 21 percent in the 2005 mayoral primary. In the past two mayoral races with primaries, whoever won the primary election lost the general election. Voters will make the final choice for mayor between Qualls and Cranley on Nov. 5.

Limitations imposed by Ohio lawmakers who oppose the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) have forced Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center to give up a $124,419 federal grant that would have gone toward helping uninsured Ohioans navigate new online marketplaces for health insurance. State legislators say the regulations are supposed to clarify who qualifies as a “navigator” under Obamacare to avoid potential abuses and conflicts of interest, but Obamacare’s supporters say Republicans are just trying to make the law more difficult to implement. Under Obamacare, participating organizations are classified as navigators so they can help promote new online marketplaces and tax subsidies to meet the law’s enrollment goals. By losing its classification as a navigator, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital can no longer help in that outreach effort.

After getting approval from county commissioners, the Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Garden is asking voters to renew a levy that will appear as Issue 2 on the Nov. 5 ballot. The renewal wouldn’t increase taxes from today’s rates, but it would keep property taxes $10 higher for every $100,000 of home value. It will go to the care, feeding and maintenance of the zoo’s animals and botanical gardens. A study from the University of Cincinnati Economic Center found the zoo had a $143 million impact on the Cincinnati area in 2012 — representing nearly 3.9 times the zoo’s total spending — and produced 1,700 jobs and nearly $1.6 million in tax revenue for Cincinnati and Hamilton County.

State Rep. John Carney announced yesterday that he will run for state auditor. Carney, a Democrat, will aim to replace Republican Dave Yost. He says his run will “bring much-needed bipartisanship and transparency back to our state government,” particularly by ending the one-party rule in many state offices. Carney also took aim at JobsOhio, the privatized development agency that has been mired in scandals in the past few months. Yost split with his fellow Republicans when he pursued a full audit of JobsOhio’s public and private funds, but Republican state legislators cut the debate short by passing a law that made the agency insusceptible to a full audit.

Two Ohio prison guards are suspended with pay after the apparent suicide of Ariel Castro, the Cleveland man who was convicted to a life sentence for holding three women captive and beating and raping them. The Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction is investigating whether proper protocols were followed to avoid Castro’s death.

Campaign contributions to Republican Gov. John Kasich and Democratic opponent Ed FitzGerald came from people the gubernatorial candidates appointed to government positions. In the case of Kasich, the contributions are legal under state law. But the $1,000 contribution to FitzGerald was returned because it was deemed illegal under a county ethics law that FitzGerald helped establish as Cuyahoga County executive. Still, Kasich’s campaign has criticized FitzGerald for the illegal contribution, even though Kasich isn’t applying the same standard to his own campaign.

The panel reviewing the state’s controversial facial recognition program will actually review the entire web-based, decade-old Ohio Law Enforcement Gateway for proper protection protocols. Gov. John Kasich and the American Civil Liberties Union are among two of many who criticized the facial recognition program for potential breaches of privacy. The facial recognition program allows police officers and civilian employees to use a photo to search databases for names and contact information; previously, law enforcement officials needed a name or address to search such databases. The program was online for two months without an independent review of its protocols and before the public was notified of its existence.

President Barack Obama nominated former Gov. Ted Strickland to be one of five alternative representatives to the United Nations delegation.

People can often remember events early in life better than more recent events, and that might explain why they usually enjoy their parents’ favorite music.

 
 
by German Lopez 09.10.2013
Posted In: 2013 Election, Mayor, News at 09:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
john cranley

Cranley Defeats Qualls as Both Advance to General Election

Voter turnout for first round of mayoral race historically low

Ex-Councilman John Cranley decisively defeated Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls today as both the Democratic mayoral candidates won the primary election and advanced to the general election.

With all precincts reporting, Cranley got 55.9 percent of the vote and Qualls picked up 37.2 percent, according to unofficial results from the Hamilton County Board of Elections. The other two candidates — Libertarian Jim Berns and Independent Sandra Queen Noble — each failed to break 5 percent of the vote.

The two victors come as little surprise to most election watchers, who have long been calling Cranley and Qualls the frontrunners. But Cranley’s strong lead has led to celebrations from Cranley’s supporters and downplaying from Qualls’ backers.

The city has held only two primaries since it enacted its “strong mayor” rules in 1999, which call for a primary when there’s more than two eligible candidates. The two winners then go on to the general election for the final decision. Previously, the City Council candidate with the most votes was designated mayor.

In both the primary elections held since 1999, the primary winner ended up losing the general election. In 2001, Courtis Fuller beat Charlie Luken in the primary in a 53.8-38.5 percent vote; Luken went on to win the general election 55.4-44.6 percent. In 2005, David Pepper narrowly beat Mark Mallory in the primary 31.2-30.7 percent; Mallory is currently mayor after winning the general election 51.8-48.2 percent in 2005 and getting re-elected in 2009.

The results’ significance is even murkier because voter turnout was a dismal 5.68 percent. In comparison, the mayoral primary held on Sept. 11, 2001 — the day of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon — had 15 percent voter turnout. In 2005, 21 percent of voters participated in the mayoral primary.

Still, Cranley’s victory is being heralded by his supporters tonight, particularly because it might show a shift from Qualls’ strong lead in early polls.

For the two camps, the contentious race is about which vision Cincinnati should embrace as the city’s downtown revitalization gains national recognition and momentum. Qualls supports the streetcar project and parking lease, while Cranley opposes both.

On other issues ranging from inclusion in city contracts to government transparency, the candidates are largely in agreement. Berns, who was officially removed from the mayoral race through todays vote, spent much of his time on the campaign trail criticizing Cranley and Qualls for sharing a remarkably similar voting record on City Council.

Cranley served on City Council from 2000 to 2009. Qualls has been on City Council since 2007 and previously served on City Council from 1991 to 1993 and as mayor from 1993 to 1999.

Voters will make the final decision between Cranley and Qualls on Nov. 5. 

This story was updated with clearer election results and to correct Cranley’s full time on City Council, which the story previously said was from 2001 to 2009 instead of the accurate timespan of 2000 to 2009.

 
 
by German Lopez 08.21.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor at 01:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
 
 
jim+berns

Mayoral Candidate Plays Dead in Latest Campaign Stunt

Jim Berns blames local media for his campaign’s failure

Libertarian mayoral candidate Jim Berns today pronounced his campaign dead and claimed local media, including CityBeat, is to blame.

“From day one, the Cincinnati Print Media (especially the Enquirer) have thrown Libertarian candidate for mayor, Jim Berns, under the bus,” Berns wrote in an email, listing Carl Weiser, Jane Prendergast, Ryan Hoffman and Ben Goldschmidt of The Cincinnati Enquirer, Howard Wilkinson of WVXU, German Lopez of CityBeat and Chris Wetterich of The Business Courier as the main culprits.

In the email, Berns complains that the two frontrunners in the mayoral race — Democrats Roxanne Qualls and John Cranley — have nearly identical records. Those candidates’ biggest points of disagreement are the streetcar and parking plan, both of which Qualls supports and Cranley opposes.

The email claims the media should call Berns “courageous, innovative, a real choice” instead of a “perennial candidate.”

Berns then attached this picture:

The latest stunt is just one of many that have been part of Berns’ campaign.

On July 31, Berns declared he was quitting the mayoral race in protest of the city’s primary system, which Berns says favors Qualls and Cranley. A day later, he changed his mind and said he’s back in.

On June 4, Berns, who supports marijuana legalization, said he was going to hand out free marijuana plants at a campaign event. The gifts turned out to be tomato plants, not marijuana.

In general, the Libertarian’s campaign has focused a lot on giving stuff away. His campaign card proudly touts his intent to give out free ice cream, which he has repeatedly done at events.

As a Libertarian, Berns supports lower taxes and smaller government and opposes drug prohibition. He was endorsed by the conservative Coalition Opposed to Additional Spending and Taxes (COAST).

Cincinnati is generally considered a Democratic stronghold, which has kept Berns’ chances of winning the mayoral race very low. The city hasn’t had a non-Democratic mayor since Charterite Arnold Bortz left office in 1984. Back then, the local Democratic Party and the Charter Committee were working together through a coalition.

 
 
by German Lopez 08.15.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor at 12:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
john cranley

Cranley Unveils Innovation Plan

Mayoral candidate hopes to continue Cincinnati’s tech startup momentum

Cincinnati mayoral candidate and ex-Councilman John Cranley today announced his two-part innovation plan, which he said would boost government transparency and help continue the nationally recognized momentum Cincinnati has recently gained as a tech startup hub.

The plan would take $5 million over four years from the capital budget and ask local startup incubators Cintrifuse, The Brandery and CincyTech where they would like to see the money going. As one example, Cranley said the money could help host an annual “hackathon” in which savvy innovators compete to create apps that could better connect residents and city services.

When asked specifically where the money would come from, Cranley said it would be part of the $30 million the city allocates each year to capital projects. Cranley also remarked that the city will have more capital funds if he dismantles the streetcar project, which he has long opposed.

Cranley’s innovation plan also calls for hiring a chief innovation officer (CIO) and creating “CincyData,” a transparency initiative that would gather and publish city data to create “a more efficient, effective and user-friendly City government.”

“This is about improving customer service for city services,” Cranley said.

The CIO and CincyData would also help find new ways to carry out city services in the hopes of running the local government more efficiently.

Cranley said he’s in preliminary talks with Cincinnati Bell to see what it would take and how much it would cost to establish CincyData.

As for the CIO, paying for the position’s salary would cost the city about $50,000 to $60,000 a year, according to Cranley. That’s about 0.01 to 0.02 percent of the city’s operating budget.

Cranley said he currently has no one in mind for the CIO position.

Cranley is running for mayor against fellow Democrat Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls, who has publicly supported Cincinnati’s startup incubators during her time in City Council; Libertarian Jim Berns; and Independent Sandra “Queen” Noble.

Cincinnati recently gained national recognition for its tech boom in Entrepreneur and CNBC, with Entrepreneur calling the city “an unexpected hub for tech startups.”

City Council on Aug. 7 approved using $4.5 million to help move Cintrifuse, The Brandery and CincyTech to new Over-the-Rhine headquarters. Cintrifuse claims the new home will make it easier to attract and keep businesses in Cincinnati, especially since Over-the-Rhine is currently undergoing its own economic revitalization.

An Aug. 14 study from Engine and the Kauffman Foundation found high-tech startups add jobs more quickly than new businesses in other sectors, but the startups are also just as likely to fail as other businesses in the long term. The study also found that tech startups are more likely to cluster, so establishing a city or other location as a hub can help bring in more similar businesses.

 
 
by German Lopez 08.07.2013
Posted In: News, City Council, Mayor at 05:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
 
 
mark mallory

Council Approves Various Development Deals

Mayor Mark Mallory praises day's work as "huge day of progress for Cincinnati"

City Council met today for the first time since June and passed several development deals and projects spanning six Cincinnati neighborhoods.

The approved deals include a 15-year tax abatement for the second phase of The Banks, which will produce 305 apartments and 21,000 square feet of retail space; several other apartment projects; new Over-the-Rhine headquarters for Cintrifuse, a small business and startup incubator; the redevelopment of Emanuel Community Center; and a new homeless shelter for women in Mt. Auburn.

The projects are expected to lead to 575 new apartments around the city. That could prove particularly timely for downtown Cincinnati, which is currently struggling to meet high demand from a growing market of aspiring property renters, leasers and buyers.

"Today is a huge day of progress for Cincinnati," Mayor Mark Mallory said in the statement. "The momentum has been building in our city for a while. And now, developers and businesses are lining up to do projects in the city because they see all of the progress and they want to be a part of it. This is the vision — our success is leading to more success."

Among the other items, Council passed a motion asking the city administration to look into a disparity study and a resolution condemning a ballot initiative that would change the city's pension program by pushing future public employees into a less generous 401K-style plan.

Today's meeting was Council's only full session for July and August, which is why the agenda was so packed. That's irked some council members and critics, who argue Council should be in session for more of the summer.

"Council has no shortage of issues to consider and challenges to address — this should NOT be our only Council meeting of the summer," tweeted Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld during today's meeting.

Council is scheduled to meet again on Sept. 11.

 
 
by German Lopez 08.01.2013
Posted In: News, 2013 Election, Mayor at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
 
 
john cranley

Cranley Outraises Qualls in Mayoral Race

History suggests fundraising is not necessarily an indicator of strength

Ex-Councilman John Cranley is outraising Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls in the 2013 mayoral race by roughly $124,000. Some are calling the fundraising lead an important indicator of strength, but the history and research of money in politics show the lead might not matter much, if at all.

The numbers came in yesterday as political candidates from around the state filed their finance reports. So far, Cranley has raised about $472,000, compared to Qualls’ $348,000. Of that money, Cranley has about $264,000 still in hand, and Qualls has nearly $193,000.

The disparity is unsurprising to the campaigns. The Cranley campaign has always said it needs $1 million to win. Qualls, who’s been polled as the slight favorite, has a tamer goal of $750,000.

The City Council races are similarly sprawled with cash. Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld is leading the pack with nearly $279,000, while newcomer Greg Landsman topped challengers and even some council members with a total raised of $165,000.

Given all the cash pouring into the campaigns, many people assume it plays a pivotal role. But a look at the history and research shows fundraising might not matter all that much.

Money clearly didn’t matter in the 2005 mayoral race. During that campaign, former State Sen. Mark Mallory spent nearly $380,000. Ex-Councilman David Pepper spent $1.2 million — more than three times his opponent. Mallory still won the vote 52-48 percent.

In contrast, money might have boosted Sittenfeld to second place in the 2011 Council races, putting the relatively new challenger only behind the widely known Qualls. Sittenfeld raised $306,000 for that campaign, the most out of anyone in the race.

Still, most political science points to money having a marginal, if any, electoral impact. Jennifer Victor, a political science professor at George Mason University, explains the research in her blog: “Campaigning may help voters focus their attention (see this), be persuasive in some cases (see this), and help deliver successful message (see this). Frequently, macro-economic trends are the best predictors of presidential elections. History tells us that all that money spent by outsiders may not affect the outcome of the election — because campaigns (generally) don’t matter (see political science research here, here, and here, for example).”

Instead, political scientists cite other factors as much more important indicators: economic growth, the direction of the city, state and country, incumbency or successorship, name likability and recognition, and political affiliation.

The mayoral primary election is Sept. 10, followed by the final election on Nov. 5. The next finance reports are due Oct. 24.

[Correction: This story originally said $134,000 when the correct number is $124,000.]

 
 

 

 

 
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