One week after the major Democratic victories of Election Day, Ohio’s Republican legislators are pushing HB 298, a bill that will keep federal funds from Planned Parenthood. In a Health and Aging Committee hearing at today, Ohio Republicans voted to push the bill through committee and into the Ohio House of Representatives floor.
If the bill passes the Republican-controlled General Assembly and is signed by Gov. John Kasich, it will block $2 million in federal funding from Planned Parenthood and prioritize other family services. In the past few years, Planned Parenthood has become a popular target for Republicans because the organization provides abortion services. But that’s not all Planned Parenthood offers; a chart released by the organization in February demonstrated abortions only make up 3 percent of its services.
Another criticism leveled by Planned Parenthood supporters is the federal funding is legally barred from being used for abortions. Instead, the funding would go to other health services within Planned Parenthood, which provides general women’s health services to poor and rural women.
Some Democratic lawmakers say the bill shows an out-of-touch Republican Party.
“For the life of me, I cannot understand why Republicans are so intent on taking away from women the right to make their own choices about their bodies,” said Ohio Sen. Nina Turner in a statement. “Voters soundly rejected the foolishness of the radical right on Election Day in favor of the dignity of American women, but some lawmakers must not have heard.”She added, “While Republicans rail against women making their own choices, they are cutting funding for education and critical social services that children need after they are born. They want small government, all right — small enough to fit into a woman’s womb.”
The strong words showcase what was a loud, feisty exchange
between Planned Parenthood supporters and Republican lawmakers. At the
committee hearings, supporters and opponents of HB 298 testified. Some
opponents cited their personal experience, including an emotional account from one
woman regarding her own rape at age 13. She said she was glad young women like her can turn to
Planned Parenthood for help.
Ohio Rep. John Carney, a Columbus Democrat, pointed out that throughout the hearings, no health care provider testified in favor of HB 298. One doctor testified against the bill. Carney also pointed out that no tax dollars that go to Planned Parenthood pay for abortions.
The bill isn’t the only action Republicans have recently taken against women’s health rights. Ohio Senate President Tom Niehaus told The Cincinnati Enquirer about the possibility of a renewed heartbeat bill on Nov. 8. In October, Kasich appointed two anti-abortion advocates to government positions. In this week’s news commentary (“Ohio Republicans Continue Anti-Abortion Agenda,” issue of Nov. 14), CityBeat covered the ensuing Republican campaign against abortion rights.
The Republican head of Hamilton County’s governing board outlined his own alternative for a 2013 budget on Monday, proposing an austere path forward after rejecting other budgets that would raise some taxes.
Board of County Commissioners President Greg Hartmann said his proposed budget would reduce the size of county government by 30 percent, compared to five years ago. He said he wants the board to approve a budget before the Thanksgiving holiday.
“It is a budget of austerity and investment in growth,” Hartmann said.
He added, “It is a structurally-balanced budget,” that doesn’t use one-time sources of cash to make up for shortfalls.
Hartmann’s proposed budget would cut the Sheriff’s Department by about $57,000 or 0.01 percent from 2012 levels; reduce the coroner’s appropriation by 3 percent or $99,000; cut economic development by 5 percent; cut 5 percent from adult criminal courts; and reduce subsidies to the Communications Center and Sheriff’s Department.
Hartmann stressed that it is important to fund public safety as fully as allowable in these tough economic times, as economic development is not possible without it.
Hartmann’s budget comes after commissioners rejected three proposals from County Administrator Christian Sigman.
Sigman proposed $18.7 million in cuts, which Hartmann’s budget maintained in addition to his own reductions.
Two of Sigman’s proposals involved increasing the sales tax to balance the budget.
Fellow Republican Commissioner Chris Monzel said he supports Hartmann’s efforts at austerity, but is working on his own budget proposal as well.
“An austerity budget is the way we’re going to go, and it’s going to be hard,” he said.
The board’s sole Democrat, Todd Portune, said he too is working on his own proposal that he had hoped to have prepared for the Nov. 5 meeting, but was still making tweaks and hoped to present it by the following week.
He hinted that the results of Election Day might impact how he crafts his budget proposal.
“Tomorrow’s results may have an impact as well on the budget that I present as it relates as well to those who are running for county seats,” Portune said. “We have in some cases two very different visions in terms of solutions.”
Both he and Hartmann are up for re-election. Portune is running against Libertarian Bob Frey. Neither candidate has a major party challenger.
Hartmann, who has actively campaigned for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, had a joke in response to Portune’s waiting for the election results.
“I thought you were predicting Romney’s win would make the economy go on the right track,” Hartmann cracked. “I was thinking that’s what you were going to go with.”
Just two days before the general election, President Barack Obama made his case to 13,500 people packed into the University of Cincinnati’s Fifth Third Arena and 2,000 in an overflow room.
Obama cast the race in comparisons to the previous two
presidents, comparing his policies with those of Bill Clinton and equating Republican
challenger Mitt Romney’s plans with those of George W. Bush.
“So stay with me then,” Obama said. “We’ve got ideas that work,
and we’ve got ideas that don’t work, so the choice should be pretty clear.”
With less than 48 hours before polls open on Election Day,
a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll had Obama and his Republican challenger locked
in a statistical dead heat. However the same poll showed Obama with a slight
edge in Ohio, up 48 percent to Romney’s 44 percent.
Obama touted his first-term accomplishments, including ending the
war in Iraq; ending Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, the policy preventing homosexuals
from serving openly in the military; and overhauling the country’s health care
system.
“It’s not just about policy, it’s about trust. Who do you trust?”
the president asked, flanked by a sea of supporters waving blue “Forward”
signs.
“Look, Ohio, you know me by now. You may not agree with every
decision I’ve made, Michelle doesn’t always agree with me. You may be
frustrated with the pace of change … but I say what I mean and I mean what I
say.”
Nonpartisan political fact-checker PolitiFact on Nov. 3 took a
look at Obama’s record on keeping his campaign promises from 2008. The group rated
38 percent as Kept, 16 percent Compromised and 17 percent Broken.
Twice during his speech the president was interrupted by audience
members shouting from the stands.
The first was a man on the balcony level of the arena
interrupted, shouting anti-abortion slogans and waving a sign showing mutilated
fetuses before being dragged out by about five law enforcement officers. Both were
drowned out by supporters.
Music legend Stevie Wonder opened the rally for Obama, playing a
number of his hits, opening up “Superstition” with a refrain of “on the right
track, can’t go back.”
Wonder discussed abortion policy between songs and urged Ohioans
who had not already voted to do so either early on Monday or Election Day.
So far, 28 percent of Ohio voters have already cast their
ballots. CNN reports that those votes favor Obama 63/35, according to public
polling.
Meanwhile on Sunday, Romney campaigned before an estimated crowd
of 25,000 in Pennsylvania, according to the Secret Service.
Political rallies always draw a number of the loyal opposition,
and this late-evening appearance was no different. Only five people protested
near the line to the arena, but what they lacked in number they attempted to
make up for in message.
One large sign read “Obama: 666” and another “Obama is the Beast,”
alluding to a character in the Christian Biblical book of Revelation.
A man who only identified himself as Brooks carried a large
anti-abortion sign that showed pieces of a dismembered fetus.
“I’m here to stand up for the innocent blood that has been shed
in this land to the tune of 56 million,” Brooks said. He said he was opposed to
the politics of both major party presidential candidates.
“I pray for Barack Obama because his beliefs are of the
Antichrist, just like Romney,” Brooks said.
Brooks said his message for those in line was for them to vote
for Jesus — not on the ballot, but through their actions and through candidates
that espoused Christian beliefs.
“Obama is not going to change things, Romney is not going to
change things,” Brooks said. “In the last days there are many Christs, but not
the Christ of the Bible. The Christ of the Bible is not for killing children,
is not for homosexual marriage.”
In-person early voting is underway in Ohio. Find your nearest polling booth here.
Hurricane Sandy slammed the East Coast last night. At least 16 people are believed to have died from the storm, and as many as 7.5 million were left without power. Areas of New York and New Jersey also faced major flooding. It took until 4:30 a.m. for Sandy to go from hurricane to tropical storm.
The Anna Louise Inn will be in court at 9 a.m. today arguing in front of the First District Court of Appeals, which could overturn a May ruling and allow the Inn to move forward with its renovation. CityBeat will have online coverage for the hearing later today.
Hamilton County’s probation department is facing sexual harassment charges. The charges are coming from a county worker who said her promotion was denied due to her actions “for opposing discrimination and encouraging others to exercise their right to be free from acts of discrimination.”
The Coalition Opposed to Additional Spending and Taxes filed a lawsuit Friday in an attempt to reverse the August reworking of the Blue Ash airport deal. For COAST, the lawsuit is mostly to stall or stop the financing for the $110 million Cincinnati streetcar.
City Council will vote next week to decide whether the city should borrow $37 million to fund development projects and a portion of the Homeless to Homes program. But Homeless to Homes is generating some concern due to its requirement to move three shelters.
Three Cincinnati charity groups are coming together to help veterans with disabling injuries. The organizations will pool available resources to hopefully find jobs for veterans.
Mitt Romney is running a new ad against President Barack Obama in Ohio that says Chrysler is moving Jeep production to China. The ad, which Chrysler says is false, warranted a snarky response from the car company: “Despite clear and accurate reporting, the take has given birth to a number of stories making readers believe that Chrysler plans to shift all Jeep production to China from North America, and therefore idle assembly lines and U.S. workforce. It is a leap that would be difficult even for professional circus acrobats.” The Obama team also responded with its own ad. It is somewhat understandable Romney would be getting a bit desperate at this point in the race. Ohio is widely considered the most important swing state, but aggregate polling has Romney down 1.9 points in the state. Romney is up 0.9 points nationally.
State Republicans are refusing to pull an ad that accuses William O’Neill, Democratic candidate for the Ohio Supreme Court, of expressing “sympathy for rapists.” This is despite the fact that Justice Robert Cupp, O’Neill’s Republican opponent, has distanced himself from the ad. At this point, even the most nonpartisan, objectives watchers have to wonder why the Republican Party can’t keep rape out of its messaging. In comments aired first on Aug. 19, U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin of Missouri said on pregnancy after rape, “If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.” On Oct. 23, Richard Mourdock, the Senate candidate for Indiana, said, “I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize that life is that gift from God. And, I think, even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”
Ohio is getting closer to the health exchange deadline with no plan in sight. Obamacare asks states to take up health exchanges that act as competitive markets for different health insurance plans. States are allowed to either accept, let the federal government run the exchanges or take a hybrid approach. As part of the health exchanges, the federal government will also sponsor a heavily regulated nonprofit plan that sounds fairly similar to the public option liberals originally wanted in Obamacare.
Meanwhile, Ohio and other states still haven’t decided whether they will be expanding their Medicaid programs. In the past, state officials have cited costs as a big hurdle, but one study from Arkansas found Medicaid expansions actually saved money by reducing the amount of uncompensated care. Some states that expanded Medicaid also found health improvements afterward.
An inspector at the Ohio Department of Education (ODE) was caught not doing her job. The inspector was supposed to do 128 site visits for in-person safety inspections, but she apparently never showed up to some of the schools and filed fraudulent reports.
Peter Cremer North America could add 50 jobs in Cincinnati over three years in an expansion.
A San Francisco firm bought a major stake in Cincinnati Bell.
There are only a few more weeks of political commercials, ads, promises and accusations flooding the TV and radio before the Nov. 6 presidential election. While many Americans are tired of political campaigning, Ohio — the most important swing state in the United States — has been showing a great response toward the campaign as it nears its end.
On Thursday, 4,000 people lined up outside of Jet Machine in Bond Hill to hear Republican candidate Mitt Romney speak at 11 a.m.
After flying in to Lunken Airport on Wednesday night, Romney had breakfast at First Watch in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday morning before proceeding to the rally in Bond Hill.
His visit in Cincinnati was the first of a three-stop bus tour in Ohio — along with Worthington and Defiance, Ohio later that afternoon.
At the Jet Machine warehouse, Romney criticized Barack Obama's campaign, foreign policies and plans for America's future.
"The Obama campaign is slipping because he keeps talking about smaller and smaller things when America has such big problems," Romney said.
Romney cheered on small businesses and promised that his businesses experience will help turn the economy around.
In a response to the Cincinnati rally, the Obama campaign explained that Romney's visit was just another attempt to try and convince Ohio workers that he is on their side and will stand up to China, when in fact it's the opposite.
"As a corporate buyout specialist, Romney invested in companies that pioneered the practice of shipping jobs to places like China, shutting down American plants and firing workers — all while he walked away with a profit," Jessica Kershaw, Obama for America — Ohio press secretary, explained.
"These jobs are likely to come at the expense of American workers in cities like Cincinnati, and that’s why the people of Ohio will not be supporting Mitt Romney this November.”
Romney ended the rally encouraging the Buckeye state to go to the polls and vote early.
"We need to make sure Ohio is able to send a message loud and clear: We want real change. We want big change," Romney encouraged.
In an attempt to secure Ohio, President Obama is due in Cincinnati on Halloween. With just two weeks remaining before election day, a new Ohio poll from TIME.com says that Obama is winning 49 percent of Ohio, compared with Romney's 44 percent.
In the letter, the Democrats say they would find voter fraud to be a serious problem if it was happening, but they also note recent studies have found no evidence of widespread voter impersonation fraud. An Oct. 4 Government Accountability Office study could not document a single case of voter impersonation fraud. A similar study by News21, a Carnegie-Knight investigative reporting project, found a total of 10 cases of alleged in-person voter impersonation since 2000. That’s less than one case a year.
Tim Burke, chairman of both the Hamilton County Board of Elections and the Hamilton County Democratic Party, says the faulty voter registration forms, which groups like TTV typically cite as examples of in-person voter fraud, never amount to real voter fraud.
“Those nonexistent voters never show up to vote,” he says. “(The forms) were put together by people working on voter registration drives. Frankly, the intent wasn’t to defraud the board of elections; the intent was to defraud their employer into making them think they’re doing more work.”
In other words, people aren't submitting faulty voter registration forms to skew elections; registration drive employees are submitting the forms to try to keep their jobs.
To combat the seemingly nonexistent problem of voter impersonation fraud, TTV is planning on recruiting one million poll watchers — people that will stand by polling places to ensure the voting process is legitimate. The Democrats insist some of the tactics promoted by the group are illegal. The letter claims it’s illegal for anyone but election officials to inhibit the voting process in any way. Most notably, Ohio law prohibits “loiter[ing] in or about a registration or polling place during registration or the casting and counting of ballots so as to hinder, delay, or interfere with the conduct of the registration or election,” according to the letter.
Burke says state law allows both Democrats and Republicans
to hire observers at polling booths. However, the observers can only
watch, and they can’t challenge voters. Even if the appointed observers see suspicious
activity, they have to leave the voting area and report the activity
through other means.
The tactics adopted by TTV have an ugly history in the U.S. Utilizing poll watchers was one way Southern officials pushed away minority voters during the segregation era. By asking questions and being as obstructive as possible, the poll watchers of the segregation era intimidated black voters into not voting. In the post-segregation era, the tactics have continued targeting minority and low-income voters.
The Senate Democrats make note of the ugly history in their letter: “It has traditionally focused on the voter registration lists in minority and low-income precincts, utilizing ‘caging’ techniques to question registrations. It has included encouraging poll watchers to ‘raise a challenge’ when certain voters tried to vote by brandishing cameras at polling sites, asking humiliating questions of voters, and slowing down precinct lines with unnecessary challenges and intimidating tactics. These acts of intimidation undermine protection of the right to vote of all citizens.”
TTV has already faced some failures in Hamilton County. Earlier this year, the group teamed up with the Ohio Voter Integrity Project (VIP), another Tea Party group, to file 380 challenges to the Hamilton County Board of Elections. Of the 380 challenges, only 35 remain. The vast majority were thrown out.
“For the most part, they tried to get a bunch of UC students challenged because they didn’t have their dormitory rooms on their voter registration rolls,” Burke says. “All of those were rejected. We did nothing with those.”
But he said the group did bring up one legitimate
challenge. Some voters were still registered in a now-defunct trailer
park in Harrison, Ohio. Since the trailer park no longer exists,
Burke says no one should be voting from there. The board didn’t purge
those voters from the roll, but the board unanimously agreed to ensure those voters are challenged and sent to the correct polling place if they show up to vote.
Still, TTV insists on hunting down all the phantom impersonators and fraudulent voters. In partnership with VIP, TTV is continuing its mission to stop all the voter impersonation that isn't actually happening.
VIP is brandishing the effort with a program of its own. That organization is now hosting special training programs for poll workers. The organization insists its programs are nonpartisan, but Democrats aren’t buying it.
Burke says it’s normal for Democrats and Republicans to hire poll workers, but if the Voter Integrity Project program puts the organization’s anti-fraud politics into the training, it could go too far.
“The job of the poll worker is to assist voters in getting their ballots cast correctly,” Burke says. “It’s to be helpful. It’s not to be belligerent. It’s not to be making voters feel like they’re doing something evil.”
He added, “If poll workers are coming in and deciding that they’re going to be aggressive police officers making everybody feel like they’re engaged in voter fraud and therefore trying to intimidate voters, that’s absolutely wrong.”
In-person early voting is underway in Ohio. Find your nearest polling booth here.
State Rep. Alicia Reece, a Democrat, is not happy with what she sees as another attempt at voter suppression. Reece claims a new billboard, which reads “Voter Fraud is a Felony,” is meant to intimidate voters — particularly voters in low-income and black neighborhoods. The company hosting the billboards says there are 30 billboards like it in Greater Cincinnati and the sponsor of the billboards, who chose to remain anonymous, did not ask to target any specific demographic.
The second presidential debate is tonight at 9 p.m. All eyes are on President Barack Obama to deliver a better performance than he did in the last debate against Mitt Romney. The media was quick to jump on the post-debate bounce in polls Romney experienced a mere week after the debate, but political scientists say debates typically don’t have much political significance in the long term. Still, the debate will be a good opportunity for Obama and Romney to flesh out their positions and show their abilities to reach out to the public. The full schedule of the remaining debates can be found here. The agreed-upon rules to the debates were leaked yesterday. One notable rule says the candidates may not ask each other any direct questions during any of the debates. Both the Romney and Obama campaigns made a fuss about tonight's debate moderator possibly asking follow-up questions.
But the debate isn’t the only important presidential test
this week. While in Youngstown, Paul Ryan, Republican vice presidential
nominee, tried to show he can pass the dish washing test, but little did
he know that savvy media outlets were ready to call him out on his
dishonesty. Brian Antal, president of the Mahoning County St. Vincent De
Paul Society, said Ryan was only at the group’s soup kitchen for the
picture and didn’t do much work. The visit apparently angered Antal, who
said his charity group is supposed to be nonpartisan.
Ohio is still weighing options regarding a Medicaid expansion. Critics of the expansion are worried the expansion would cost the state too much money. However, previous research shows Medicaid expansions can actually save states money by lowering the amount of uncompensated care. Medicaid expansions in other states also notably improved lives.
One analyst says Cincinnati-based Procter & Gamble will see stronger growth in the future.
A controversial ruling by the Ohio Supreme Court is sparking some local debate. The ruling said juveniles are not entitled to an attorney during police interrogations preceding a charge or initial appearance at juvenile court. Under state law, juveniles are allowed to have attorneys during “proceedings,” and the Ohio Supreme Court interpreted “proceedings” to mean “court proceedings.”
Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted announced 6,665 new entities filed to do business in Ohio in September. The number is up from September 2011, when 6,143 new entities filed to do business; but it’s down from August 2012, when 7,341 entities asked to do business in Ohio. The numbers show a steady economic recovery.
The Ohio Turnpike may get a few changes soon. A new Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) study shows a few options for Gov. John Kasich’s administration: lease the turnpike, give it over to ODOT or leave it alone. If the turnpike is leased or handed over to ODOT, tolls will likely rise to keep up with inflation and two maintenance facilities will shut down. However, the revenue generated could be used for new transportation projects — a goal for the Kasich administration. Kasich is set to make his decision in about a month.
In other Ohio Turnpike news, Turnpike Director Rick Hodges announced turnpike tow truck companies will soon be paid less but allowed to charge customers more.
Scientists want to measure human consciousness. The technology could gauge whether vegetative patients retain any awareness.
On National Coming Out Day, Cincinnati’s only openly gay city councilman told CityBeat that equality for America’s Lesbian Gay Bisexual and Transgendered people would take a hit under a President Mitt Romney.
“On day one (of his presidency) he (Romney) could hurt gay families by reinstating Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and hurt security for our country,” Seelbach said. “We need as many people serving as possible.”
Councilman Chris Seelbach spoke to CityBeat as he waited to vote early outside of the Hamilton County Board of Elections.
Proponents of the measure that prevented openly gay service members from serving in the military have said repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell would damage the country’s combat-readiness.
A study published by the Williams Institute at University of California Los Angeles Law School in September found that there has been no overall negative impact on military readiness, unit cohesion, recruitment, retention or morale.
Seelbach said there would be a stark contrast for LGBT people under President Barack Obama and his GOP rival. He pointed to the Obama administration’s refusal to defend the Defense of Marriage Act in court; his vocal approval of same-sex marriage; anti-discrimination measures signed by the president that, among other things, give same-sex partners the right to visit their loved ones in the hospital and make medical decisions.
He said the next president would also likely have the opportunity to appoint new justices to the U.S. Supreme Court. The court will likely decide the fate of California’s Proposition 8, which outlawed gay marriage.
"If you care about equality, you've got to vote," Seelbach said. "The easiest way to vote is to vote early."
The Obama campaign in Ohio plans to release a new online ad touting the president’s accomplishments for LGBT people.
The ad, made available to CityBeat, features Zach Wahls, a gay-rights activist born to a lesbian couple via artificial insemination. Wahls is known for his testimony before the Iowa House Judiciary Committee against a constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage in that state.
In the ad, Wahls touts the president’s accomplishments and exhorts Ohioans to reelect Obama.
“We want to make sure that we’re all doing everything we can this fall to get out, register voters, canvass, knock on doors, get our family members and friends out to the polls so that we can re-elect the best president this country has ever seen on LGBT rights,” Wahls said.
In-person early voting is underway in Ohio. Find your nearest polling booth here. More than 1.1 million Ohioans have requested absentee ballots.
Secretary of State Jon Husted appealed an early voting ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. The ruling by the appeals court said all Ohioans must be allowed to vote on the three days before Election Day. Previously, only military personnel and their families were allowed. The appeals court ruling also passed the final decision on whether voting should be allowed during those three days to the county boards of elections and Husted.
Husted also sent out a directive Thursday telling board of elections employees that they can only notify absentee voters about mistakes on their ballots through first-class mail. Previously, email and phone notifications were allowed.
Rev. Jesse Jackson was in Cincinnati yesterday in part to criticize Husted and other Republicans. Jackson accused Ohio’s state government of engaging in voter suppression. The reverend’s claims have some merit. In moments of perhaps too much honesty, Republican aides have cited racial politics as a reason for opposing the expansion of in-person early voting. In an email to The Columbus Dispatch published on Aug. 19, Doug Preisse, close adviser to Gov. John Kasich, said, “I guess I really actually feel we shouldn’t contort the voting process to accommodate the urban — read African-American — voter-turnout machine.”
In a new video, Josh Mandel, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, dodged answering a question about whether he would support the auto bailout for five straight minutes.
More preliminary data for Ohio’s schools and school districts will be released next week. The data gives insight into how Ohio’s education system is holding up.
The Ohio Board of Education also promised to pursue the state auditor’s recommendation of making the student information database in-house, which Auditor Dave Yost says could save $430,000 a year.
“We are holding our own feet to the fire,” promised Bob McDonald, CEO of Procter & Gamble, at P&G’s annual meeting. The Cincinnati-based company had a rocky year, and the harsh questions at the meeting reflected the troubles. McDonald promises he has a plan for growth.
In response to last week’s Taser report, local police departments haven’t done much.
President Barack Obama and opponent Mitt Romney were in
Ohio yesterday. Obama drew significant crowds at Ohio State University,
while Romney drew a new chant of “four more weeks.” Ohio is considered a must-win for Romney, but Obama is currently up by 0.8 points in the state.
A new report from the left-leaning Urban Institute says Obamacare will lower health care costs for small businesses and have minimal impact on large businesses. But another report says Obamacare will raise costs for mid-size businesses.
A new ad shows that the presidential election has probably jumped the shark: