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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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Despite meager contributions from Barry Larkin, hitting
hasn't been the Reds' problem in 2003. It's poor
pitching.
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At the Reds' winter organizational meetings sometime in the middle 1990s, General Manager Jim Bowden challenged the scouts with the names of premier hitters from the early 1990s -- names like Jeff Bagwell, Robin Ventura and Frank Thomas. Bowden asked his scouts a tough question: "What do all these guys have in common?"
"They're All-Stars," one replied.
"They're all .300 career hitters," came another response.
Bowden knew all along he wouldn't hear the right answer from this group.
"You guys said they couldn't play for us," he spat back at the scouts.
That moment is Jim Bowden in a nutshell, dynamic and indelicate, alert and alienating. But also making a worthwhile point.
The Reds in those days were coming out of the dark ages of Marge Schott's player development austerity, when they drafted the safest prospects they thought they could find. They went with "run and throw" guys, following the wisdom attributed to Branch Rickey that you can teach a kid how to hit and catch but you can't teach him how to run and throw. But the "run and throw" guys kept topping out at Chattanooga, two rungs below the big leagues.
Preceding the cutbacks in the 1980s, the Reds developed a bushel of excellent players in their ways -- Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, Paul O'Neill, Chris Sabo, Rob Dibble and others. Following the cutbacks up to the late '90s, the Reds finished Reggie Sanders' development and brought up catcher Dan Wilson before trading him to Seattle for Bret Boone. That, basically, was it.
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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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Bowden sent his message loud and clear. He wanted hitters. Soon, they would arrive.
Today, the Reds are perched on the ends of many narratives, the presumed completion of the Jim Bowden Era among them. On a correlative note, it's 2003, that season of abundant promise for which we've delayed gratification all these years. The Reds have put their every strategic thought of the last several years to 2003, so committed to success with the opening of Great American Ball Park that they broke up a borderline contender in 2000 just to make sure we wouldn't go off half cocked.
But it's 2003 now, and the Reds aren't very good. They just took a three-game sweeping in their new park from the New York Mets, who are the biggest mess money can buy.
The Reds are distinguished by the worst pitching in the National League, which feeds off the worst defense in the National League. Players on good ball clubs can pretty well count on putting in a full nine innings without giving up seven runs. The Reds just hope they don't give up eight.
Bowden developed an answer. It's just not a very complete answer. Hitters.
The scouts produced Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns, the kind of hitters he had in mind. Bowden traded for two more hitters, Sean Casey and Ken Griffey Jr.
This club can hit. But it's apparent that's all it can do.
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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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Reds pitchers like Danny Graves haven't delivered in
the new Great American Ball Park.
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Lost promise
The Reds promised a contender in 2003. Somehow, though, the fact that they're contending isn't very satisfying evidence that they've kept their promise.
Through July 7, they were 40-47, having lost 12 of their last 16 games. They still sat within 5 1/2 games of first place in the NL Central -- but were closer to last place.
The hitters have made us feel good from time to time, winning 21 games in their final at-bat, coming from behind when they aren't too far behind, looking like a club with the magic of a winner. Unfortunately, winning isn't about magic. It isn't about hitting, either.
It's about catching the ball, throwing it, knowing who's on what base and which play to make. Crucially, in the end, it's always about pitching, which has been Bowden's hovering failure as the organization opens a new ballpark in the final year of his contract.
This rebuilding program was supposed to replicate the Cleveland Indians' success at Jacobs Field when it opened in 1994. In 1997, Bowden made a midseason announcement that the Reds could no longer pretend to contend with the remnants of their 1995 NL Central winner, thereby initiating a charge to rebuild for 2001, when the club expected to open a new stadium.
But ownership dragged its feet in negotiations and moved the project back two years. Thus, the rebuilding already was botched.
In those days, the Reds weren't so far behind the curve in revenue generation that they couldn't afford a pitcher or two. By 1999, they matured into a good ball club. The starting rotation included two solid veterans in Pete Harnisch and Denny Neagle. A couple journeymen, Steve Parris and Ron Villone, came up with big seasons. Down the stretch, the Reds traded for Juan Guzman, who won six games for them in the last two months.
Anchored by Danny Graves, Scott Williamson and Scott Sullivan, the bullpen was young and tough. The starting infield included three excellent kids -- Sean Casey, Pokey Reese and Aaron Boone -- along with a possible Hall of Fame shortstop in Barry Larkin.
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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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An outside view of the Great American Ball Park
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The Reds won 96 games, barely missed winning the NL Central and missed the playoffs only because the Mets beat them in a play-in game. Despite that disappointment, the Reds counted their blessings. They improved all the way from 77 wins in 1998, and they did it with a $33 million payroll -- a $10 million increase from a year earlier.
Shortly before spring training in 2000, the Reds pulled the Griffey trade, initiating a wave of euphoria among Reds fans that recalled the Big Red Machine from a quarter of a century earlier. Then the season began, as did waves of bickering.
Bowden's marriage began falling apart and his behavior turned more erratic, on and off the job. Players and manager Jack McKeon sniped through problems of their own, as well as their problems with Bowden.
The Reds were 5 1/2 games out of the wild card spot at the All-Star break. The day after the All-Star Game, the Reds traded Neagle, threw away a season that began with great promise and jilted the fans by saying they were rebuilding all along for 2003. In so doing, the Reds immeasurably raised the stakes for 2003.
Rebuilding is off schedule
If the Reds had been able to open a new ballpark in 2001, they could have kept Neagle and added a pitcher. They would have made more revenues relative to the state of baseball's economy. They might have been able to win. Instead, they set their sights to the season we're living today.
What were those sights, and why haven't they been realized?
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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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There still isn't an heir apparent for Barry Larkin.
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After the All-Star break in 2000, the Reds game program published an account of how the Reds were assessing their minor leaguers. The article noted that Reese and Dmitri Young could be gone after the 2002 season because of free agency. Instead, they were gone after the 2001 season because of trades.
The piece also noted, however, that Reese belonged to a good infield with a chance of being intact for 2003. Except for Reese, that's been the case.
After letting him go, the Reds filled the gap at second base last year with Todd Walker, who led the club in hitting before he was deemed too expensive. The article named only one other second baseman, Chattanooga's 21-year old Wilmy Caceras, noting that he probably would be a utility player. Caceras still is in Chattanooga.
The piece also contained this statement: "The Reds like 19-year-old Dayton shortstop Rainer Olmedo, who can also play second base." Indeed, Olmedo has become the second baseman in the last couple weeks. So perhaps the Reds had an answer at second base.
As of late 2000, the Reds rightly figured they would maintain Casey at first base, Aaron Boone at third and Larkin at shortstop. That mostly has been the case. Unfortunately, Larkin is 39 and not spry enough to play every day.
The Reds have turned over every rock to develop Larkin's replacement. The two other shortstops mentioned in that Reds piece, Gookie Dawkins and David Espinosa, are out of the picture. They've tried Juan Castro at shortstop and found that Felipe Lopez, acquired from Toronto, isn't exactly ready. So the Reds have nothing at short, unless Larkin can hold himself together for two good months down the stretch.
The Reds figured in 2000 that Jason LaRue would be their catcher in 2003, with Corky Miller coming up behind him. LaRue shows up every day and does a fine job. Miller is playing every day in Louisville.
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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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Manager Bob Boone (left) and All-Star son Aaron.
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In the outfield, the Reds knew in 2000 they could count on Griffey this year, though they would be happier if he were the superstar for whom they traded. Down in Dayton, they waited on Kearns and Dunn. Both have arrived successfully.
Looking at the Reds of 2003 from the Reds' vantage point in 2000, one would have to say they were mostly prescient about their daily lineup. Four of their starting eight have stuck in the majors since 2000, Boone and Casey were young and growing, Larkin and Griffey were historically great players.
If this game were all about hitting, Bowden's organization could take a bow. Beginning with his sharp words for the scouts, he upgraded the organization's development of hitters. But if he said anything smart to the scouts about pitching, it hasn't been revealed on the mound at Great American Ball Park.
Where's the pitching?
Going back to the 2000 piece in the Reds' game program, one might think the Reds would be loaded with pitching from the low minor leagues by 2003. Of the Reds pitchers in 2000, Graves, Williamson, Dennis Reyes and Rob Bell figured to be with this year's club. Williamson is indeed the closer, while Graves is struggling in a starting role. But Bell has fallen off the face of the earth, finally resurfacing with Tampa Bay last month. Reyes is nowhere to be found in the major leagues.
At Louisville, the Reds liked John Riedling and Scott Winchester in long and middle relief, with Justin Atchley as a possible starter. Only Riedling remains in the picture. At Chattanooga, the Reds were high on left hander Lance Davis, who made it up in 2001 and won eight games. We haven't seen him since. Davis is in Louisville now, 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA.
The Reds in 2000 were highest on their pitchers in Class A ball. The article highlighted the following names: Jose Acevedo, Ty Howington, Brian Reith, David Gil and Travis Thompson off the Dayton staff, then Brad Salmon, Scott Dunn, Jose Valdes, Mike Neu, Jorge Cordova and Ryan Mottle from the Clinton staff. In addition, the Reds hoped for a couple unsigned draft picks, Dustin Mosely and Ryan Snare.
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Photo By Jymi Bolden
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Is it already time to wait ’til next year?
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This was going to be your stock of arms to help move the big league club forward in 2003. Where are they?
Acevedo made it to the Reds in 2001, 23 at the time, and started 18 games with 5.44 ERA. But he began to find himself at the end of the year, posting a 3.54 ERA over 28 innings in his last six appearances. Acevedo began the 2002 season in the starting rotation and struck out six in six innings for a 3-1 win against the Chicago Cubs in his first start. He struggled in his next outing, and then the Houston Astros pounded him for seven runs in less than two innings for his third start.
Acevedo made one more decent start and another bad start before the Reds sent him to Louisville last May. Since we all know the Reds are aching for starting pitchers, they even stuck him in the bullpen before finally giving him a start on June 30. He's running a 6-2 record with a 3.42 ERA at Louisville. Through last weekend, he's on a five-game winning streak.
Remarkably, the Reds have buried two guys who they thought would be in the 2003 plan, Acevedo and Davis, pitchers who have been in the big leagues, gotten some hitters out and are pitching well enough in Louisville. The Reds have tried Riedling, Jimmy Anderson, Jeff Austin and Chris Reitsma as starters this year without a whiff of Acevedo or Davis. It doesn't point to a great deal of discipline with respect to their plan.
It's difficult, of course, to project pitching, especially from the low minor leagues. But both Acevedo and Davis made it all the way up as young pitchers only to be forgotten today, when the Reds need pitching. Acevedo, for one, can't be a complete dog. He struck out 12 in seven innings last February in the Caribbean World Series. It's not the major leagues, but it takes some chops.
Except for Reith, who's been up and down with the Reds in the last three years, the other young pitchers haven't cut it. Their top pick in 1999, Howington, is a 6-foot-5 left hander. But injuries have held him back, and he remains in Class A.
Three years later, Gil finally just made it to Louisville. Mottle, Mosely and Dunn have made it as far as Class AA this year. The Reds just traded Dunn to the Chicago White Sox for D'Angelo Jiminez in an attempt to shore up their middle infield. Three years later, Thompson and Salmon still are in Class A ball. The rest are gone.
The new plan
So there's your 2003 rebuilding. Where do the Reds go from here?
Bowden needs a big score if he's going to keep any chance of working in the major leagues as a GM next year. But the trade market is crowded. Somehow, he must find a starting pitcher. Beyond that, all that can be offered is a few suggestions.
To wit, put Danny Graves back in the bullpen to relieve a tired relief staff. We have a finding from the Graves experiment in the starting rotation -- he's not very good after about 45 pitches. If the Reds move him to the pen, trade for a starter and bring up Acevedo, they can go back to five starters.
Adam Dunn might well hit 50 homers this year, but here's what he gave the Reds from July 1, 2002 to this June 30: 34 homers, 69 RBI, 176 strikeouts, 114 walks and a .200 batting average. The Reds act like they worry about playing hot-hitting Jose Guillen every day because they don't want to expose him. Maybe they should worry about exposing Dunn.
It might also be worth a crack to bring Brandon Larson back up from Louisville, where he's hitting .335 to win a place in the Class AAA All-Star Game. The Reds would have to move Boone back to second base so Larson could play third base, but the Reds must give it a shot if they're going to push for the pennant.
After all, Larson, if he finds his game, is exactly the kind of player around whom Bowden has built the Reds. In that respect only has the 2003 rebuilding project been a success.
The plan lacked a productive program for developing pitchers, though. Evidently, that's a job for the Reds' next general manager. ©
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