 |
By Christopher Witflee
|
A baseball club can win in February and March, but the wins are little more than dreams and ticket sales. Not to denigrate ticket sales, which were all too scarce for the Reds in recent years, but they don't win games.
They do reflect confidence, so the Reds' acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. was a victory of morale and economy. But April is coming, so it's time to win games. As the Reds firm up their inventory in advance of Monday's historic Opening Day, Griffey will be the attraction.
Meanwhile, the man on whom the Reds ultimately rely will toil in lower profile. It's been more than 20 years since Reds fans have turned out to watch him play. One way or another, though, conjecture about a Reds pennant will hang on the work of Don Gullett.
It's still not proven that the Reds have pitching to surpass Houston or prevent St. Louis from surpassing them. Pete Harnisch and Denny Neagle have fought gamely through arm problems, and it's still not a cinch that Steve Parris and Ron Villone aren't one-year wonders. The watch is on for tired arms in the bullpen.
St. Louis added Darryl Kyle, Andy Benes and Pat Hentgen while Matt Morris angles for a prompt return as the staff ace. Houston subtracted Mike Hampton, for this year, anyway, but the Astros are confident they can piece together a rotation out of Jose Lima, Shane Reynolds, Octavio Dotel, Scott Elarton, Chris Holt and Dwight Gooden. Everyone is talking this spring about the Pittsburgh Pirates and their good, young rotation.
Home runs are fun -- Griffey, Sean Casey, Dante Bichette and others will hit a lot of them this summer -- but pennant chasing is serious business and requires pitching. Once again, the Reds are attempting to contend on a limited major league payroll and, because they're spending a lot on bats, they aren't spending as much on pitching.
The Reds could never get away with it if it weren't for Gullett, their resourceful pitching coach. The Reds pitching staff of 1999 was both largely unknown and one of the best in the National League. It's because their pitching coach is such an excellent mechanic and healer. If you could have predicted last spring that Parris and Villone would make 27 percent of the Reds' starts, you wouldn't have predicted the club would win 96 games.
Both started last season in the minor leagues. Villone had been cut at the end of spring training by Cleveland, which, as the playoffs have exposed, is lacking in front-line pitching. A big lefthander, he learned last year to tighten his delivery and cut down his walks. Parris had never made much impact in 10 years of professional baseball, but he became a reliable craftsman last season. Without their 1999 production, the Reds would have finished in the middle of the NL Central and the Griffey trade would be much less attended by pennant possibilities.
As the Reds made their cuts late this spring, one could see the seeds sewn for another unlikely pitching staff. As the season begins, Gullett faces no fewer than seven developmental projects, besides normal maintenance. It would be a lot to ask for four of the projects to work out. But if only two come through, the Reds staff will be good and deep.
Early this week, the Reds sent out Osvaldo Fernandez and Bobby Munoz to Louisville. Fernandez, formerly a star with the Cuban national team, is a righthander who's made 40 major league starts to little effect. Munoz is 6-foot-8, has been around for a while and says he's just now beginning to take his pitching seriously.
The Reds have been encouraged, also, by the work of Scott Winchester. After a year of tender loving care, Mark Wohlers is throwing hard again. And there's Rob Bell, the promising prospect who came with Neagle from Atlanta a year ago. The Reds have evidently decided to give a bullpen spot to lefthander Hector Mercado, a 25-year-old minor league free agent. And the fifth starter is Mark Portugal, the changeup pitcher made useful in 1995 by Gullett's insistence that he go more to his fastball.
Across the pitching staff, the Reds simply must heed Gullett's insistence that the pitchers throw strikes and have confidence in their stuff. In particular, the Reds must cut down on leadoff walks. They put the leadoff man on 169 times last year, most in the majors. That kind of pitching puts way too much pressure on the defense, which, in another guise, makes trouble for the offense.
And pressure on the offense is already assured. Griffey, Dmitri Young, Barry Larkin and Eddie Taubensee all have been around long enough that their outputs might be predicted. The rest of the lineup has its upsides, but no one can be sure if those upsides are anticipation or reality.
To begin with, the Reds don't have a true leadoff hitter. They have Pokey Reese, who reached base less than one-third of the time last season. He can be exciting on the bases and could be counted on for a key hit here and there in 1999. But that second year as a major league regular always poses a stern challenge for hitters.
It's not called the sophomore jinx for nothing. Pitchers have their book on Reese. They will adjust to him. If they can keep him off base, the Reds are stuck with two challenges -- to score without their leadoff hitter on base and their leadoff hitter to learn how to reach base.
If Reese can't reach base, Larkin's talents as a No. 2 hitter will be wasted and he'll have to hit for more extra base power than he'd like. In connection, it will be interesting to see how much the Reds run with Griffey batting third. With Larkin and Griffey in the top third of the order, the Reds can play big ball or little ball as the situation warrants.
Like their leadoff hitter, the Reds' clean-up man will be challenged by pitchers who have adjusted to him. Casey probably will do something like .332 and 25 homers again, but if he matches that production it'll come from being a better hitter.
That said, the matter of protecting Casey in the batting order will have a lot to say about whether or not the Reds generate all the production they can. Bichette comes to the Reds with Coors Field numbers and very ordinary achievements in other parks. If he truly is a paper tiger and he's hitting behind Casey, then Casey won't see many good pitches.
Young would be a safer choice to bat behind Casey. The Reds forgot about him for much of last season, but he's proven himself a good enough hitter to play every day. His problem is defense. Whether he plays left or right field, it will be difficult to hide his glove, even with Griffey next to him in center field. In addition, Griffey is going to have to hide Bichette on his other side.
Some in baseball believe that, at this stage of his career, Griffey is a downgrade from Mike Cameron as a defensive center fielder. If so, it's probably only slightly true and only with respect to the most difficult plays. In total, Griffey stands to be much more consistent and still plenty good, but it's asking for a lot if he is to hide two weak corner outfielders.
Taubensee will never win a Gold Glove behind the plate, but a lot of clubs would like to have him because he's a tough out. Breaking from years of platooning last season, he gave the Reds real numbers. If Reds pitchers can keep leadoff hitters from reaching base, his difficulty throwing out runners won't be as much of a problem.
Compared with the rest of the lineup, Aaron Boone doesn't seem like much. But he gave a quiet, solid performance at third base in his first full season last year and he'd be an upgrade for a lot of clubs. Again, as with Reese and Casey, he'll have to deal with the first serious adjustment from opposing pitchers. And if he's batting eighth, he will have no protection.
All eyes will be on the NL Central this year, for all its clubs are interesting and the top four are also good. Opening Day always brings excitement. The following weeks will bring questions. The club that answers them best usually wins.
Most of the questions in baseball are concerned with pitching. The Reds might not have all the answers, but they have Gullett. That's a start.
