When you read about television these days, you often hear how the overall audience for the networks has been declining. At first, viewers were defecting to cable channels, but still watching TV. In the past few years, however, people have left television for their home computers. The concept of three commercial broadcast networks with local affiliates is dying.
I am going to predict the future of television. Maybe someone will dig this up in 25 years and check my clairvoyance. This is all a semi-educated guess, but here's what I think we can expect.
Historically, the majority of control of the broadcast medium has rested in the hands of the few. The recent merger of Time Warner with Turner Broadcasting and now Viacom's proposed acquisition of CBS are examples of this. Microsoft's chummy partnership with NBC is also a sign pointing to where we're headed.
Computers, telephone and broadcasting will gradually merge and come into your home via something called "broad band." No, its not a new channel competing with Lifetime, but a way to move colossal amounts of data through a single wire, to your home and into your face.
When radio first appeared, everyone tried to get in on the ground floor, but by the 1930s it had shaken itself out into a handful of networks. This framework was transposed over to television in the late 1940s.
The difference between then and now, though, is that over-the-air broadcasting requires the use of a finite resource called the electromagnetic spectrum. Radio and television use a part of it to send their signals through the air. Since the spectrum is limited, the government regulated it in the public interest.
The Internet and broad band don't have this problem. Though you do rely on a wire to bring you the information, there's virtually no limit to how much can be sent. You'll also be able to ask for movies and such on demand, and even to fast-forward and rewind them, as though they were videotapes. The Internet will be even quicker than with today's fastest PCs.
It should be easier to navigate. Sometimes the Internet is fast and efficient. At other times it is mind-bogglingly frustrating to locate even the simplest things. The Web has introduced one interesting concept or, more accurately, expanded on an old one: The home Web page has allowed anyone and everyone to make a mark on the Internet.
Improved technology should allow folks to broadcast in real time over the net. This will make amateur "broadcasting" even more accessible than cable access, though the results may be just as campy.
The music industry is going to have to deal with all this, too. Plucking music right off the wire that comes into your home would be remarkably convenient, but it horrifies industry executives. You've probably guessed that money is the issue -- or the loss thereof. The answer is simple. The signal will have to be encoded, which will allow for billing. This will actually benefit artists out of the mainstream, since their royalties will be more accurately tracked. Will people be able to defeat it? Sure, but there are those who defeat the current system, and when they're caught, they are prosecuted.
Money also will ultimately dictate which direction this all moves. The best technology may not win out. It took years for FM radio to be accepted. Even though it had superior sound reproduction, David Sarnoff and RCA fought a pitched battle to keep the FCC from approving Edwin Armstrong's invention. They eventually lost, of course, but the precedent was set.
High Definition TV will also play a role in the entertainment media of tomorrow. This will probably be how you view programs, Web information and phone calls. Could a three-dimensional platform be far behind? Using lasers, images could be assembled on a small stage in your rec room. Remember the image of Princess Leia stored in R2-D2?
In 25 years, perhaps I will dig this column up and see how I did. Someone else at that point may write, "P.F. thought we'd get everything through one service instead of having it beamed directly into our brains like it is today. Idiot!" ©
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